North Korea: the spoilt child of Asia-Pacific international relations.

North Korea has been raising tensions in recent days, as I’m sure nobody reading this needs to be informed. The usual guff about destroying the imperialist enemy and the evil of these meddling Westerners (though how Japan counts as a Western country from the Korean peninsula I’m not sure) is growing tired. Many expect some action from Kim Jong Un, but I would argue that we have already seen it. The restarting of the North Korean nuclear facility at Yongbyon is arguably a provocation to the western powers and any UN or NATO member-states who have opposed proliferation in the past, most obviously regarding Iraq or Iran.

The sabre-rattling and missile deployment seems to be hot air, and insiders report that an assault on the South seems unlikely. They point to the lack of significant troop movements in the North, which would be the necessary precursor to an invasion. Notwithstanding that, the Japanese have deployed counter-batteries of patriot missiles near Tokyo, clearly perceiving the threat to be a real and present one. Or is this, too, simply a show of force? Similar arguments were heard over the flight of US B-2 nuclear-capable radar-proof bombers over the Korean peninsula. The Obama administration claimed that it was a warning, but since then the situation has only grown more serious.

More fundamental to the debate is Kim’s motivation. He is undeniably using the situation as propaganda, and the hysteria on the part of the North Koreans is a necessary part of maintaining the dominance of the regime, in accordance with their ideology of ‘Juche’. Taken plainly, though, this idea ignores the significant fact that there is no way, unless Kim Jong Un genuinely loses his mid, that they would go to war with the US and South Korea. That would mean destruction or at least inevitable defeat. Instead, as we saw when the situation last flared up, there may be a show of fore. A full-strength military action, however, seems highly unlikely. The regime may well have missiles capable of delivering warheads, but their range is limited compared with the ICBMs of other world leaders, and some have not yet been tested – firing an untested nuclear-capable missile is about as dangerous as it sounds. (Think firework down the back of your pants…) More likely is a petulant slap at the Daddy figure of the US from a regime that is growing as increasingly isolated as it is impoverished.

More retrospective imperialist self-justification as this story develops.

-Will

International Top 3!

1) After a stroke, Baroness Margaret Thatcher, former Prime Minister of Great Britain, nicknamed “The Iron Lady” has died. Thatcher tirelessly promoted freedoms in the Soviet Union and remained a friend to struggling post-Soviet countries. She was a defender of British individualism, keeping the pound instead of jumping into Euro-centrism. She supported free market ideas and worked to reduce the role of government. She is considered one of the most influential people of her era, a strong female voice in world politics and a respected advocate of her policies.

2) In Egypt, 4 Christians and 1 Muslim were killed during an outbreak of sectarian violence north of Cairo. Today, during the funeral for the 4 Christians, another set of clashes began, injuring 90 and killing 2. This has been the deadliest outbreak of this form of violence in months.The entire church was under attack before police made it to the scene, with mourners barricading themselves within the building.

3) Israel has closed one of the crossings with Gaza after rockets were fired from Hamas held territory during a commemoration of the Holocaust last night. Israeli authorities said they would allow crossing for humanitarian cases only. No one was injured during the attack.

-Katrina  (Continue discussion on international affairs with Kat via twitter @Verbatim)

International Top Three!

1) US and South Korea are running joint drills today that include 10,000 South Koreans and 3,000 Americans.  Drills by both parties have been on-going since March 1st, but today marks the first joint exercise. However, North Korea has threatened both countries over this drill using the highest level of threats seen in years. The US does not believe that North Korea actually has the ability to carry-out its threats and the new President of South Korea has promoted a fiercely independent stance against their Northern neighbors.

2) Malta held elections this past Saturday. 39-year-old Joseph Muscat of the Labor Party was sworn in today after winning 55% of the vote, and his party should have a 9-seat majority in Parliament. This is the largest victory for the party since the country gained its independence in 1964.

3) This weekend, the Falkland Islands citizens had a chance to vote if they wanted to stay a British territory or not. The islands have been under some dispute due to their proximity to South America. Great Britain hopes the results (which are suspected to be overwhelmingly in their favor) will garner international support. Many countries, including the US, have remained neutral when it comes to the British sovereignty issues in the Falkland Islands.

-Katrina  (Continue discussion on international affairs with Kat via twitter @Verbatim)

Dennis Rodman. The unthinking man’s diplomat.

Dennis Rodman has been making headlines this week with his ego-boosting trip to North Korea, during which he said Kim Jong-Un was, as he put it “my friend”, and that he loved his people. That may well be, but it certainly doesn’t look like it from the perspective of the international community, or from the perspective of the people of North Korea. Only last week they were detonating test nuclear weapons, the capability of which makes them an existential threat to every nation in the world that is not North Korea. Shortly before that they were threatening the safety and stability of the international community with threats over war games being carried out by South Korean and American troops.

Never mind that though, says Rodman, he can still endorse one of the world’s most brutal dictators as a thoroughly friendly and good man, without feeling guilt. In Rodman’s words, “He’s a good guy to me. He’s my friend… I don’t condone what he does, but as a person to person, he’s my friend.” In that case, Mr Rodman, no harm done. You don’t endorse what he does, therefore your apparent endorsement of his regime by a visit there, enjoyment of the surroundings, attending events with the leader, shaking hands, and looking thoroughly in cahoots with him, is fine. Never mind that a million people have starved to death in North Korea since the 1990s. Never mind the two hundred thousand North Koreans in prison camps, the existence of which is denied by the authorities. These camps are known for their total ignorance of human rights laws, and North Korea rates highly on the scale of brutality. Nobody knows for sure how many political prisoners there are, or how many have died at the hands of the government, in North Korea.

It seems all very well for Mr Rodman to pop over for a jaunty visit and some waving at (compulsorily) cheering crowds, but even his unintentional (if it is unintentional) endorsement brings benefits that put Rodman into the class of people with no sense of right or wrong, and no real integrity and humanity. “I love him, the guy’s awesome” Rodman blurts to North Korean TV networks, like he’s been for a barbecue with the newly-elected mayor of some provincial town.

Think for a moment, if you will, what your reaction would be if it weren’t Rodman, and it weren’t Kim Jong Un. If someone you knew had been to President Assad’s Syria, to President Hussein’s Iraq, or to Colonel Gaddaffi’s Libya, and returned having offered their endorsement as character witnesses to them, and told you that actually, if you took Bashar, Saddam or Muammar as a person, they were really cool. You would be shocked beyond words, wondering what kind of person could say such a thing. Who could dare to utter such a callous, unthinking example of pure idiocy? A very good question indeed, and one that I put to the public. I see the answer as Dennis Rodman, basketball player and international socialite, notable only for his utter lack of shame. Partying with the world’s brutal and vicious dictators while innocent people starve and die cannot be accepted by anyone, and we must not let Rodman get away with it on account of his fame.

International Top 3 of the Day

1) After much stalling and boycotting by Republicans, Chuck Hagel was finally confirmed for U. S. Secretary of State.

2) A beach was closed in New Zealand after a man was killed by a shark. Expect Shark Week to be all over it.

3) Egypt confiscates 60+ antitank missiles smuggled from Libya headed towards the Sinai Pennisula.

-Katrina  (Continue discussion on international affairs with Kat via twitter @Verbatim)

International Top 3

1) Bulgaria’s government resigns after 8 days of massive protests over the economic situation in the country. Parliament will vote on Thursday to accept the resignation or not and then then an election date will be announced.

2) Tunisia’s Prime Minister resigns after failing to set up a technocratic initiative. The country’s leading party, Ennhada has links to the Muslim Brotherhood and is being blamed for the country’s current instability. Feb 6th, opposition candidate Chokri Belaid was assassinated and since then protests and violence have torn up the country.

3) Syria hasn’t stopped. Scud missiles are attacking Aleppo and left around 50 dead since yesterday. Mortars in Damascus killed a soccer hero. Bombs went off near one of the presidential palaces. The UN is calling for a solution but there does not seem to be one in sight.

-Katrina  (Continue discussion on international affairs with Kat via twitter @Verbatim)

Marco Rubio’s finest hour?

No, it wasn’t. The man hailed by Time as the ‘savior’ gave what many see as a pretty weak response to President Obama’s State of the Union speech. The President’s peroration was fairly well-received and debate following it has refreshingly focused on his policies, rather than his birth certificate. Rubio, contrastingly, gave a speech that was, while admittedly only 2,600 words so not necessarily dense in policy, a response made up of talking points and lacking narrative. What I mean by that is that while the Administration, through Dan Pfeiffer, White House spin boy, put about the question ‘If the GOP is opposed to raising the minimum wage, what is their plan to ensure people who work full time don’t live in poverty?’, the Republicans had no equivalent story or image to conjure save a re-iteration of standard GOP principles.

As John Dickerson wrote for Slate, perhaps that is because they do not see the need for change. Many conservatives think that the GOP is in the right place. It must be said that this is a refreshing change from the UK standard procedure for post-election political strategy (or vacuum of strategy and leadership), which some have nicknamed the ‘circular firing squad’. For those who think that the GOP needs to embrace change, as I concede it is doing to some extent – see positioning away from DOMA-style (Defense of Marriage Act) legislation – this is not going to be enough.

Rubio was off on all the main themes. On global warming, something Obama has tentatively moved on but people see him as far and away the best candidate for, Rubio rather glibly said “Our government can’t control the weather.” His same-old same-old 2000-2012 GOP rhetoric continued, attacking government, because “More government isn’t going to help you get ahead. It’s going to hold you back.” Hardly original stuff; this is boilerplate from Romney and the rest of the GOP candidates in 2012. It lost them the country and minority voters specifically because they favour the state. To minorities it is an instrument for social engineering and helping those who most need it. They (broadly) like government, not untrammelled free markets. Replacing government with low spending and even lower taxes just doesn’t fly with the majority of Hispanic, Asian and Black voters. Whether or not the policy is right, it just isn’t electorally sensible.

Rubio wasn’t chosen to be the ideological figurehead of the GOP though. He was chosen because he’s Hispanic and favors comprehensive immigration reform. Even that won’t do it though. Romney lost the Hispanic vote 2 to 1 and the Asian vote 3 to 1 (figures are approximate). As I have said, minorities broadly don’t like GOP policies. The proof was in the pudding. When it came to discussion of Rubio’s speech, the most discussed thing, as Roger Simon covers here very neatly, was the big gulp. What does that tell us? Even aside from an adversarial press who report all the little slip-ups, the policies he outlined and the talking points he uttered were just not original and certainly not newsworthy. If the Republicans want their modernization to be a part of the news agenda, it needs to be comprehensive, much more significant than the inroads already made. The talking heads will tell you the old GOP model ain’t broke yet. It might not be, but there is a growing body of evidence that it hasn’t got long left before it is.

-Will

Continue the discussion with Will on Twitter @HewstoneW

International Top 3

1) The pope resigns. First time in 600 years this has happened! The reason cited is poor health, but child sex abuse cases and a scandal by Benedict XVI’s personal butler to leak private papers plagued his papacy. The last time this happened, it caused a major schism in the church.

3) The King of Jordan, Abdullah II, inaugurated the country’s new parliament Sunday, hopefully a greater step towards democracy for the struggling country.

-Kat

The Second Amendment: a uniquely American obsession.

Wayne LaPierre did the rounds of TV stations after the recent shooting in Newtown, and despite that there appears to have been some movement toward gun control, but if there is one thing that we should learn, it is that old habits die hard. With even SEAL snipers no longer safe, the pro- and anti-gun lobbies are in overdrive.

Congresswoman Giffords, the residents of Newtown and Chris Kyle, former record-holding sniper murdered at a Texas gun range. It seems like every week there is another shooting, and every week I hear pundits saying that every week there is another shooting. The thing that never occurs to them is to say enough s enough. President Obama’s move after Newtown has been, in what Salon Magazine called “gusty”, to push for controls on assault weapons. The Salon article added that “Obama’s decision to stand before a cadre of law enforcement officers for his Minneapolis speech made great political theater. It served as a reminder that the NRA’s “enemies list” includes the National Association of Police Organizations, the National Association of School Safety and Law Enforcement Officers, and the Police Foundation.” The underlying point in this is that Obama doesn’t want Police officers outgunned on the street. This doesn’t look set to pass the Senate though, where Democrats would require 60 votes. Not looking so gutsy now. Impotent is closer to the truth.

In the interests of balance, an alternative strategy might be what Wayne LaPierre is advocating- installing either credentialed security officers or Police officers in all schools. What this does not address though, is, as Chris Wallace pointed out to him in the now infamous interview, ALL other gun crime and gun deaths. In 2012, 45 Americans died in school shootings. By 2015, it is forecast (see Bloomberg link) that the annual deaths from guns will be 32,929, compared with a projected motor vehicles death rate of 32,036. The fact that gun deaths look set to overtake vehicle deaths in just three years is tragic, but misses the point; that they are that close in the first place is shocking.

Whether or not the answer to a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun, and whether or not President Obama’s controls get through the Senate, the divisions will remain irreconcilable. LaPierre went on tv to accuse the President of the United States of hypocrisy because his kids have armed guards. In any European country (not that I’m bragging) that would have been laughed out of the room. A much smarter approach would have been to avoid the hysteria of these latest NRA ads and direct the frisson of politicians itching for reform towards some calculated, reasonable changes. In return for a concession, the NRA could take credit for strengthening the Second Amendment principles at stake. As it is, news outlets record measurable decreases in support for NRA-backed candidates.

I suppose the members of the inchoate post-Newtown gun reform lobby can take some solace from the fact that they won’t be swept under a carpet. The next shooting is, sadly, inevitable, and the defensive reflex to dismiss the idea of a concerted effort to find a way to prevent more shootings will take over. How controlled or how sanguinary the result is will rest on whether or not Americans decide to deal with the problem of gun violence, and how.

-Will

Continue the discussion with Will on Twitter @HewstoneW

Today’s Top Stories

1.) This morning, on his way to work, prominent Tunsian opposition leader,  Chokri Belaid, a 47-year-old lawyer, was shot. This comes at a time of already high tensions in Tunisia.